Upon Further Review: Breakout DB Update
Cecil Taylor
When you're doling out advice all over the Internet, you of course question
yourself. In fact, at IDPBlitz, we even grade ourselves, publicly measuring the
effectiveness of our IDP Starter Advice each week.
But where we really wonder is on our drafting predictions. Our IDPBlitz
philosophy is that things in the NFL do not stay the same each year. Otherwise,
we could just trot out the same old names at each position, and in fact, you
wouldn't even need us. Instead, we try to polish the crystal ball and figure out
in advance who the breakout players will be. Last year, we hit big-time on
DeMeco Ryans and Kerry Rhodes, and correctly assesses Michael Strahan's
downfall. But we missed on others, most notably Michael Huff.
One of the trickiest positions to forecast is Defensive Back. DBs can be
notoriously inconsistent as a whole (hence Landon Reed's disdain for the whole
lot of them), but obviously, there are DBs who can be very consistent (Ronde
Barber and Champ Bailey are classic cases).
This year, we aggressively identified 6 DBs who were breakout candidates, to
one degree or another. You'll see these 6 somewhere in our Top 30 DB rankings
(to know exactly where, you have to be a member!). As the preseason winds down,
it's time to review these half-dozen and see where they stand at this point in
time.
Kevin Kaesviharn, S, New Orleans - In his 1st camp with the
Saints, Kaesviharn, who can play both safety positions, has been gaining ground
on FS Josh Bullocks. He has also been filling in for oft-injured SS Roman
Harper. Both Bullocks and Harper started the Saints' 3rd preseason game.
Kaesviharn has shown that he can be effective with limited playing time. Despite
starting a little more than half of the Bengals' games last season, Kaesviharn
finished in the Top 10 in Big Play leagues, thanks to 6 INTs and 4 sacks. My
feeling is that Kaesviharn still might oust Bullocks, or that Harper will be in
and out of the lineup, creating room for Kaesviharn. However, it's time to
downgrade him somewhat to reflect the fact that he might not start. Obviously,
we'll keep a very close eye on him as the season progresses.
MOVING DOWN.
LaRon Landry, S, Washington - Is he a FS or a SS? Every report
we read places him at the opposite position. Maybe beat writers really don't
know a FS from a SS, is what I'm figuring out. But at either position, the
consistent word is that Landry "looks great," as the Washington Times said just
this morning. He should have a nice rookie season, and he's a must-draft in
dynasty leagues. SO FAR, SO GOOD.
Anthony Smith, FS, Pittsburgh - I felt like Smith could be this
year's Kerry Rhodes - a 2nd year safety who breaks out after impressive play as
a rookie. Unfortunately, Smith was hampered by an abdomen injury in his battle
with incumbent Ryan Clark and has been unable to unseat Clark upon his return.
If you saw the Sunday night Steelers-Eagles game, you got a dose of what Smith
can do. He looked great on one series in particular, leaping high to swat away a
deep pass intended for WR Hank Baskett (and almost picking it off), then placing
a solid open-field tackle on RB Tony Hunt as the last line of defense.
Those plays showed that the aggressive Smith knows how to protect the back of
the defense But it may not be enough. Longtime Steelers beat writer Ed Bouchette
wrote in Saturday's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Either free safety is highly
competent, and I believe you'll see plenty of Smith this season when they go to
six defensive backs. Clark is a heady player who, like Smith, can hit. I don't
think it's a reflection on Smith as much as it is on Clark."
In other words, competition has brought out the best in Clark. HC Mike Tomlin
has been coy as to which will be the starter, although Clark unexpectedly
started against the Eagles (the indication had been that Smith would get the
start). This battle will come down to the wire, but in our next rankings, we are
compelled to drop Smith and raise Clark to reflect Clark's probable starting
role. MOVING DOWN.
Michael Huff, SS, Oakland - A playmaker in college, Huff
surprised us by playing conservatively in his rookie season. But HC Lane Kiffin
has called him out, clearly desiring more big plays from Huff. We get mixed
reports on his progress, but at the end of the day, we're going to stick with
our view that Huff is going to produce more big plays this year. Newly acquired
Donovin Darius is a positive role model, probably a future coach who will
practice on Huff. The former Longhorn will also get to show his cover skills by
playing against WRs in the Raiders' 4-2-5 Wolverine package. Somehow, someway,
the big plays are going to start coming. SO FAR, SO
GOOD.
Antoine Bethea, FS, Indianapolis - I don't know if my colleague
Landon Reed really believed me when I advocated Bethea. Then he saw Bethea in a
preseason game and changed his opinion. Bethea made a successful leap from tiny
Howard University after being unexpectedly thrust into the starting 2006 lineup
because of injuries to Bob Sanders and Mike Doss. I get the feeling he kinda
stumbled through the season (albeit very well), but now is more prepared to
really play at this level. I'm not usually big on Tampa-2 safeties, but Bethea's
numbers will be enhanced by a porous Colts rushing defense.
SO FAR, SO GOOD.
Sean Considine, SS, Philadelphia - I was about to mark
Considine as "So Far, So Good," until the news came that he sustained a
concussion in last night's preseason game against the Steelers. Most likely,
it's not a big issue, and Considine will be ready to go by Game 1 or Game 2.
(Unfortunately, concussions should always be big issues, but players tend
to only miss a couple of weeks). Until Considine went out late in the 1st half,
he had been pushing big fantasy numbers, with 4 solos and 3 assists in the 1st
half alone. Everything indicates that Considine is up to the task of SS, and he
will get more tackle opportunities if new LB starters Chris Gocong and Omar
Gaither play as poorly as they did against Pittsburgh.
SO FAR, SO GOOD - FOR NOW.
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