I don't remember from which friend I picked up this phrase. But if I would do something sneaky or crazy, this friend would say, "I see how you are." It's one of my favorite phrases. And after a month, I'm looking at the NFL season, and saying, "I see how you are."

What is one of the mantras we repeat at IDPBlitz? EVERY SEASON IS DIFFERENT. You can't totally rely on the past to predict the future. Don't get wrong. We collect and use a lot of consistency data, centered around our concept called "The Mark," and it's one of the most useful stats at our disposal. But there is certainly a surprising, sometimes even random, nature to fantasy football production. Heck, how about to the NFL in general? Here are some facts that were in no one's crystal ball:

• The Bears, Chargers and Saints have combined for a mere 2 victories in 11 tries.
• Expected cellar-dwellers Detroit, Houston, Cleveland and Arizona have .500 records or better.
• A rejuvenated Tampa Bay defense is allowing 11 points per game, while the aging Ravens D is allowing twice as many (22.5).

And don't even get me started about underproducers on the offensive side of the ball who have been torpedoing teams: Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Marc Bulger, Marvin Harrison, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston. These guys just haven't been bad, they've been directly responsible for losses.

So it goes on the IDP side. I could probably write for hours, but here are 5 surprises that have stood out to me during September.

Reverse DL Universe

Through the first month, only 9 DLs are on a sack-per-game pace or better. Let's run down this motley crew:

• Osi Umenyiora - Collected 6 sacks in 1 game, none in 2 others, hurt in the remaining game.
• Amobi Okoye and Darnell Dockett - A 4-3 DT and a 3-4 DE - not your typical sources for IDP production.
• Trent Cole, Elvis Dumervil, Mark Anderson, John Abraham - Undersized 4-3 DEs. Cole is the heaviest at 270.
• Justin Tuck and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila - Reserve DEs who specialize in pass rush.

Ask me, who had those guys in their Top 10 on their draft boards? Umenyiora for sure, possibly Cole and Anderson. I think if I had posted that group as the Top 9 in our Draft Kit, you would've been howling at me to shape up.

The Decline of Ronde Barber

I'm not going to fool you. Ronde Barber is one of my favorite all-time IDPs. He's been consistent for years. Sometimes he breaks out and wins games for me practically on his own. I've been loyal to Ronde, and he's been good to me across multiple teams for multiple years.

But now, I'm realizing that perhaps the wrong Barber twin retired. After his slow start to the 2007 season, I have reviewed more closely what Ronde's done for me lately - and it's not pretty. Check this out:

• 7 straight games of 4 tackles or fewer (He had 6 solos or more in 9 of his first 13 games in 2006).
• 11 straight games without an INT.
• 23 straight games without a sack, which used to be his specialty, coming on the corner blitz.

You know who he's starting to remind me of? Michael Strahan. Remember, IDPBlitz was the first site to go out on a limb and tell you Strahan was washed up (July of 2006), and he hasn't done anything to contradict us. Now, I'll make the same pronouncement on Ronde Barber. He's no longer a starting caliber IDP.

The Inconsistency of Julius Peppers

On the other hand, until this year, I've never been a big advocate of the Carolina Manster. Peppers is an incredible physical talent, but he hasn't consistently played like it. Peppers will get you incredible, 3-sack games, but have too many weeks when he records practically no worthwhile stats.

I stuck my neck out for him this year, though. Defensive linemen tend to reach their zenith in their 5th or 6th seasons, around the age of 27 or 28. For example, I think you're starting to see this with 5th year pro Chris Kelsay of Buffalo, who's been productive and consistent this year tackle-wise, although he just picked up his 1st sack last weekend. He could be on the verge of something bigger. I thought that Peppers (age 27, 6th season) would take his game to a new level this year.

Unfortunately, Peppers collected zero sacks in September, just a horrible burden on his fantasy owners, not to mention the Panthers. What's more, he doesn't seem especially bothered by it. Peppers will undoubtedly return to form at some point, but he'll first do it when he's on your bench. A frustrating player to own. Ride him whenever he gets hot. But I'm starting to doubt that he'll ever find that week-after-week consistency you really need.

Sticky Fingers in Oakland

Coming into this season, Oakland LBs Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard were definitely not known for pass defense. Both had no INTs in their rookie seasons, although Morrison added 2 in his 2nd season of 2006.

Now, each are ball hogs, with 3 INTs apiece through 4 games. That would make a good season for most LBs, much less a good September.

What happened? Morrison credits his improvement to running drills with the wideouts. Maybe that will start a new trend. For now, enjoy the progress. It's hard to imagine either getting as many as 3 INTs the rest of the season. This decade, only 1 LB has reached 6 INTs for a season - Ray Lewis in 2003. Even noted LB pass defenders like Derrick Brooks, Donnie Edwards, London Fletcher and Cato June could only reach 4 or 5 for a season. Expect some regression to the mean by Morrison and Howard.

Rise of the Tampa-2 MLB

The Tampa-2 MLB typically is a solid choice, but the WLB is the star. However, the MLB role has dramatically risen to prominence through the first month.

Barrett Ruud of Tampa Bay, Paris Lenon of Detroit, Napoleon Harris of Kansas City, E.J. Henderson of Minnesota - all of these individual defensive players have ascended quickly in the rankings. Interestingly, only Harris has played a full season at MLB in the Tampa-2 defense. Ruud is a new starter in his 3rd season; Lenon alternated between SLB and MLB in prior years; and Henderson was a WLB a year ago, although he has played MLB in a different system in the past. This makes their rapid rise even more surprising. These are players who are new to the system, still understanding its intricacies at full speed in the NFL.

Will this continue? It's hard to imagine them all keeping pace with Brian Urlacher. Of the four, I would feel best about Ruud and Henderson. Ruud was groomed well for this position, and if the Bucs don't get too enamored with Jeremiah Trotter (available on their bench), then Ruud could keep this up. Henderson was effective at WLB last season, but he does tend to blow hot and cold, based on his history. Harris may be overshadowed by Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards, while Lenon still faces the threat of Teddy Lehman and is playing well above his historical pace. I keep blinking to see if this is true. Obviously, it would be exciting to have more IDP options like these, so the hope is that they can keep it up.