Advice for Overreaction Monday: Don't Panic!
Cecil Taylor
My favorite books are the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series. In
the books, one of the most pleasing things about the subject book,
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, is that in large, friendly letters on the
front cover, it reads, "Don't Panic."
Comforting words in an uncertain galaxy. And those are the same words I would
give to you, especially new IDPers who are navigating an uncertain galaxy.
Let me first compare to offense. Anyone dropping Steven Jackson today? He
basically cost me a game this weekend with his poor yardage totals, lack of
touchdowns, and costly fumbles which caused him to score negative. But if you
drop him, I'll be there to pick him up.
Is Drew Brees on sale anywhere today? Let me know. Lee Evans? Yeah, he cost
me, too, but I'm sticking with him.
OK, so those are pretty much studs. Anyone impatient with promising offensive
players who were not up to snuff in Week 1? Are you ready to trade Reggie Brown
to me? Do you think Donte Stallworth will always stall out at 1 reception under
Tom Brady's care? Know someone who's already decided that Maurice Jones-Drew has
hit a sophomore slump?
And what about Week 1 stars like Chris Brown, Josh McCown and Antwan
Randle-El? Yes, they'll be popular picks off the waiver wires. But does anyone
think they're going to repeat their hefty stats week after week after week?
I didn't think so. (But if you want to trade me Steven Jackson for Chris
Brown, let's talk). Now, let's turn to IDP.
Shawne Merriman and Julius Peppers didn't have a sack. Nor Aaron Kampman and
DeMarcus Ware. Kyle Vanden Bosch got totally shut out. A.J. Hawk looked lost out
there. Ronde Barber, Kerry Rhodes and Sean Jones had average outings.
Does this mean they're going to have lousy years? Not necessarily. The
pedigrees are too good.
Anyone picking up Kenyon Coleman (DL, Jets) this week? He had 10 solo tackles
yesterday, a stunning number for a DL. Are you kidding me? He collected more
solo tackles than ILBs Eric Barton, Jonathan Vilma and David Harris combined.
But I tell you, it's an aberration. If Coleman picks up 10 solo tackles in the
next 3 weeks combined, I will blog an "Ode to Kenyon."
The thing about Week 1 is, there is a natural tendency to multiply Week 1
statistics by 16 and therefore arrive at a final performance. We overreact to
Week 1, but it's too small of a sample size. If these stats all happened Week 9,
we wouldn't emphasize them as much.
I mean, it is encouraging to see that some of our bold picks are working out
so far. For example, we're the only web site that has gone out on a limb and
declared Mario Williams a Top 5 pick. Any of you happy with that after his
stellar Week 1 performance (2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery for a TD)? Good.
Hopefully, there's a lot more where that came from. But it's doubtful that
Williams will duplicate those stats in Week 2, either.
So be patient with your individual defensive players - and with IDPBlitz,
too. We're just now beginning to grade ourselves, but it's obvious that we
pegged some players and missed on others. (How did you like that advice to bench
Kirk Morrison, eh?) But it's going to be all right, just like it was last year
and the year before...
In fact, if you're like me and you've intensely prepared for the season and
invested a lot of time into fantasy football, one of the best things you could
do this week is perhaps dust off a favorite book, such as Hitchhiker's Guide
to the Galaxy, and relax a little instead of blowing up your team.
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