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home | Free Samples | Week 7 - Tips of the Week
 

Week 7 - Tips of the Week
Landon Reed / Cecil Taylor

One of the most anticipated columns each week is back. Cecil's got the front half, Landon's got the back, and they give some critique on each other's tips.

Waiver Tips

DL to add: Luis Castillo, San Diego. Castillo is part of a terrific front 7 for the Chargers and is getting opportunities to rush the passer one-on-one. Castillo has hit "The Mark" 60% of the time in Big Play and Balanced leagues. As topsy-turvy as this season has been for defensive linemen, that's a comfort. Ride his wave.

DL to drop: Will Smith, New Orleans. I am temporarily admitting defeat here, and only in seasonal leagues, as Smith's upside is still tremendous. Hey, sacks come and go, but what about tackles? Smith isn't playing the running game as well this year. Last season, he posted at least 4 solo tackles in 7 of 16 games as a part-time starter. This season, he has ZERO 4-tackle games in 6 outings. Look for signs of life before adding him back to your roster.

LB to add: Bryan Thomas, New York Jets. We have a piece on Thomas coming up in Saturday's News and Notes. The thought around the Jets is that ILBs Jonathan Vilma and Eric Barton are more assignment-oriented in the new 3-4 defense, and so will be limited in fantasy production. But Thomas has more latitude to run around and make plays, which the former DE is starting to figure out. Take a risk that his 2 good weeks will extend against Detroit, and maybe much longer.

LB to drop: Brian Simmons, Cincinnati. Simmons isn't still on your roster, is he? I would've thought you'd be fed up with him by now. His production is down, his neck is still ailing, and rookie backup Ahmad Brooks looks awfully big (6-4, 260, that's Urlacher-sized) and awfully good (10 solo tackles in Week 6). Simmons may hold the position, but can the Bengals afford to keep Brooks on the bench when their rush defense is so weak?

DB to add: Marlon McCree, San Diego. McCree was brought on board to provide playmaking skills at the back of the defense, and 5 games into the season, he's settling in and starting to do just that. After 3 pathetic games, McCree has hit "The Mark" twice in a row thanks to an INT and a sack. McCree probably is going to experience inconsistency because there are few tackles to be had behind the ferocious front 7. But in Big Play leagues in particular, he could be a nice addition.

DB to drop: Tory James, Cincinnati. Earlier this week, in our Week 7 Waiver Advice, we proclaimed that James would be out 2-3 weeks with a knee sprain. It must've gotten a lot better, because James isn't even on the injury report. Curious! But James is missing tackles, is a step slow, and most importantly to IDP owners, has only hit "The Mark" 20% of the time this season. Rookie Johnathan Joseph awaits playing time.

Hold onto: Chris Gamble, DB, Carolina. Richard Marshall has been the star as nickel back lately, so maybe teams will start throwing at Gamble again. Gamble has been a very consistent performer over his first 2 seasons and started out 2006 well. But his totals have faded over the last 2 weeks in particular. Count on him turning it around soon.

Leave out there: Boss Bailey, LB, Detroit. I'm not as bullish on the Boss as Landon is (see below). I'll agree that he's coming around, but he won the MLB job when SLB Alex Lewis went down and MLB Paris Lenon slid over to SLB. Lewis is almost ready to come back - what happens then? Detroit is 1-5, so changes sometimes get made. If Bailey sticks as the starter, I do see him improving. Then I'll start worrying about his health; the clock's ticking on the injury-prone Bailey.

Starter Tips

For the season, the grading system has been great, but for a 2nd week in a row, the Starter Advice wasn't so good at the top end, and consequently our Tips weren't so good, either. Well, every week is a new one in the NFL, so let's tread forward and get back on the winning track.

DL to start: Elvis Dumervil, Denver: Last week, rookie DE Mark Anderson of Chicago made me look good with a sack and forced fumble. This week, I'm going with another rookie. All the ingredients are there for a big day: (1) Dumervil is playing all passing downs for the Broncos, and has for the last 2 games. (2) Dumervil had 2 sacks a week ago. (3) He's facing a Cleveland O-line that is 7th worst in sacks allowed per game. (4) Browns QB Charlie Frye says he will hold onto the ball longer and take more sacks in order to avoid interceptions. In a word, yum!

DL to sit: Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis: Here we go again. Freeney is still ice cold, is still listed as questionable even after the bye week, and he faces Chris Samuels, a very good LT. Looks like his sackless streak will extend another week.

LB to start: All fantasy-worthy Pittsburgh linebackers (James Farrior, Larry Foote, Clark Haggans): They've all got a great matchup this week. Atlanta runs the ball a lot - good. And Michael Vick gets taken to the turf relentlessly, as the Falcons are 4th worst in sacks per game - very good. You saw New York's 7 sacks of Vick last week, right? The Steelers will be blitzing a lot, so Haggans is the best pick of the bunch, coming from Vick's blind side. Farrior and Foote will get their chances, too. Will all 3 hit "The Mark"? Probably not, but I'll bet 2 of the 3 do.

LB to sit: Ed Hartwell, Atlanta. On paper, it seems like this should be a good matchup, since Pittsburgh likes to run the ball. But can Hartwell get outside when the speedy Willie Parker sweeps? Will Hartwell hold up for a whole game? Demorrio Williams will play in nickel packages, so Hartwell is a 2-down 'backer at best. Sit Hartwell on the sidelines unless the Week 7 byes have crunched your lineup.

DB to start: Ike Taylor, Pittsburgh and Champ Bailey, Denver. For you Tackle Leaguers, turn to Taylor. He's hitting "The Mark" a fantastic 80% of the time in Tackle leagues and has the opportunity to track down Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick this week. Since he's not a good play in other formats, try Champ Bailey instead. I'm impressed with what Bailey has done, still racking up fantasy points as a shutdown CB. That's unheard of. Whenever Bailey picks off a pass and gets interviewed afterward, he starts with, "I saw something on film..." The guy is making the most of his opportunities by jumping routes and getting there before the receiver can. And on those occasions when he goes INT-less, Bailey contributes some tackles to the cause.

DB to sit: Michael Lewis, Philadelphia. I'm on board with Landon (see below) on Lewis. There's no telling what will happen, but every indication is that Lewis will play on obvious running downs only, then yield to Sean Considine. This is a disturbing trend for an excellent individual defensive player, but unfortunately, real life impedes on our fantasy world. In seasonal leagues, you might look to deal Lewis while his value is still high, but then again, this is a pretty famous story this week. In dynasty leagues, be more patient, but remember that Lewis' contract is up after this season.

Landon's Bonus Tips

In addition to individual defensive player opinion, Landon lists the offenses that are best to line up against.

Julian Peterson, LB/DL, Seahawks

Julian is going to be my blue plate special this week. Follow me on this one. Julian has been a bit of a tease since 2003 when he posted 95 solos tackles, 2 picks and 7 sacks. He's come down to earth quite a bit since then, succumbing to injuries in 2004 and a good portion of 2005. I always kept him on my radar despite these detours. (It's hard forgetting such impressive numbers as those from 2002 and 2003.) Well now not only is he healthy, but he's enjoying the support of a strong group of defenders around him. The topper is that it appears he's going to line up at both LB and DE for the rest of the season. Seattle has been playing Bryce Fisher into the DT spot at points in the last two games asking Peterson to slide forward and line up as a DE. This bodes well for those of you playing him in impact leagues. He's a good play against Minnesota this week even though Brad Johnson plays a short game and doesn't hold the ball long. But with Seattle's DBs locking down on a relatively weak WR corps, that pattern could change.

Kawika Mitchell, LB, Chiefs

Nice week last week. But where have you been up until then Mitchell? We felt Kavika would only improve in KC this year as Derrick Johnson and crew jelled into a tight LB group. It hasn't happened. Cecil has him on the Waiver Advice board as a decent 1 week start, I'm less sure, but I'll agree that with LT on the other side there'll be plenty of chances for someone on the KC D to make plays. Play him this week but expect more inconsistency from him as KC and he move through the season.

Jermaine Phillips, DB, TB

The sword of Damocles hangs over his head in Tampa. Gruden and company are extremely disappointed with his tackling this season. They'd been rotating the rookie Pearson in as an answer to Phillips's mixed performances and even actively pursued trading him this past week. Phillips is staying and he will get a reprieve from Pearson as Pearson was injured this week with an abdominal pull. He's a good sell high candidate if you have him even though his last three weeks haven't been all that great. He's a fair "hold" for now, but it appears that Tampa will use any excuse to move him to the bench once Pearson and Kelly return.

Ian Gold, LB, Broncos

I dropped Ian from a single season league I'm in. The FA pool is deep enough that I can do this without pause. Gold has been anything but gold the past two games. I watched him pretty closely against Oakland figuring he'd rack up some impressive stats against a poor team. He didn't. The LB group in Denver is very quick and Gold should have been feasting on Walters from the weak side spot, and he didn't. If you don't have other better options, then you'll have to hold and hope he plays well soon. Otherwise, drop him.

Brandon Short, LB, Giants

We've recommended him as a short term solution and still see him the same way, but…he's been pretty effective in his recent starts. Even so, his age and pedigree keep me from giving him an outright seal of approval. He's only topped 45 solos tackles once (65) and is presently one sack short of his best season total ever. He is outplaying Emmons right now. The question is can he continue to do this? I really don't know. Arrington's gaudy contract is Short's biggest hurdle in New York. If they'd do the correct thing -bench Arrington- they could put Emmons in his place and allow Short to continue playing at WLB. That's not happening, yet. Short may well end up be a season long solution. Brandon plays Bledsoe in Dallas this week. Bledsoe is an easy target. If Dallas can control the game with the run, Short won't do much fantasy wise as Dallas runs between the tackles. But, if Bledsoe has to go long all day, then Brandon will make short work of him and even seal a spot for himself in that Giants defensive unit.

James Hall, DL, Lions

I wrote last week that whatever defensive unit lines up against Losman and the Bills offensive line was guaranteed 3 sacks, well I was a little off. James Hall collected 3.5 sacks all to himself as did the lion's share of the damage against the Bills. This week Hall gets to line up against Pennington and his sacker friendly offensive line. Looks like Pennington will be thrown to the Lions; start Hall with relish.

Boss Bailey, LB, Lions

He makes a good, not great start this week against the Jets. The Jets don't have much of a running game which will cut down on Bailey's opportunities for tackles, but he's filled up his plate with 15 solo tackles in two games, he demonstrated nice speed on the field against the Bills, and with the Detroit defensive interior plugging up the inside gaps, runners are trying to swing around their lines only to be met by Bailey or Sims. He looks healthy enough to grab and hold the rest of the way. If you're looking for a potential mid-season sleeper, Bailey could be your man, Boss.

Ryan Denney, DL, Bills

I'll go with the flow. Cecil says drop him and I believe it's a good call. Denney has not only not done much since week two but the Bills decided to add Tony Hargrove to the DE mix. It's getting crowded in Buffalo. I will add one little wrench though. Hargrove's addition might put Denney right back where he was at the season's start -- a solid situational DE who could still post a sack here and there as the season goes forward. If you have a deep bench or thin FA pool, then hold and see what effect Hargrove has.

Richard Marshall, DB, Panthers

I'm keeping the start signal on this youngin until he goes belly up. He's had three weeks in a row where he's had some major fantasy contribution. As I noted a few weeks ago, the Panthers defense is strong enough that teams are looking for weakness. They keep picking on Marshall as a result and, so far, he keeps delivering for his owners. A surprisingly less effective Carson Palmer rolls the dice against Marshall this week. Play the odds and the player and start Marshall.

Robert Geathers, DL, Bengals

This guy is not getting his due. He's a sneaky pick-up if he's not gone already. He has 5 sacks in only four games and is benefiting very nicely from the attention everyone is paying to Justin Smith. If you have him, start him this week and let's see if get a takedown of Delhomme. Jake has been sacked 12 times this season but the line in Carolina has improved allowing only 1 sack in each of the last three games. It's no surprise really as Steve Smith was playing in all of those games. He is the single most important player to his team. But I digress. Geathers won't gather a lot of tackles but he's finding a way to make an impact with sacks this season. Start him.

Michael Lewis, DB, Eagles

He's losing favor in Philly. Sean Considine will be splitting time with the highly rated DB this week, same as last week. Here's the news from PhillyBurbs.com:

Practice was closed Wednesday, but Considine began working with the first defense in place of Lewis, and all signs point to him replacing Lewis when the Eagles face the Buccaneers Sunday in Tampa.

Coach Andy Reid was vague about how defensive coordinator Jim Johnson plans to use Lewis and Considine. He said both will play, but it appears Considine will be on the field in all but clear running downs

This is probably meant to scare Lewis into playing like we expect he should. It could also be a sign of the times. The article also points out that the Eagles are ranked 27th against the pass. Lewis is seen as a liability on passing plays. He'll be in for the running plays. This is awful news for Lewis owners. You should be thinking, trade, trade, trade! Maybe the news hasn't spread far and his name still means something to someone else. Am I being premature in this decision? Possibly as this is a contract year for Lewis and he was a Pro Bowler only a couple of seasons ago. Still, it remains that Coach Reid is willing to give him pine time because he is seen as a weak point on the passing end of things. Not good, not good at all. Obviously, don't start him this week. What you do with him beyond this week I leave to you.

A reminder

You just read 14 Waiver and Starter tips, plus bonus information, but our weekly Waiver Advice contains at least 30 tips each week, and our weekly Starter Advice tracks and forecasts the performance of more than 250 players. Premium subscribers get to read the Waiver and Starter Advice features. Now is a good time to upgrade your membership. (After you upgrade, please log out and log back in to get your Premium service).