Week 7 - Tips of the Week
Landon Reed / Cecil Taylor
One of the most anticipated columns each week is back. Cecil's got the front
half, Landon's got the back, and they give some critique on each other's tips. Waiver Tips
DL to add: Luis Castillo, San Diego. Castillo is part of a
terrific front 7 for the Chargers and is getting opportunities to rush the
passer one-on-one. Castillo has hit "The Mark" 60% of the time in Big Play and
Balanced leagues. As topsy-turvy as this season has been for defensive linemen,
that's a comfort. Ride his wave. DL to drop: Will Smith, New Orleans. I am temporarily admitting
defeat here, and only in seasonal leagues, as Smith's upside is still
tremendous. Hey, sacks come and go, but what about tackles? Smith isn't playing
the running game as well this year. Last season, he posted at least 4 solo
tackles in 7 of 16 games as a part-time starter. This season, he has ZERO
4-tackle games in 6 outings. Look for signs of life before adding him back to your
roster. LB to add: Bryan Thomas, New York Jets. We have a piece on
Thomas coming up in Saturday's News and Notes. The thought around the Jets is
that ILBs Jonathan Vilma and Eric Barton are more assignment-oriented in the new
3-4 defense, and so will be limited in fantasy production. But Thomas has more
latitude to run around and make plays, which the former DE is starting to figure
out. Take a risk that his 2 good weeks will extend against Detroit, and maybe
much longer. LB to drop: Brian Simmons, Cincinnati. Simmons isn't still on
your roster, is he? I would've thought you'd be fed up with him by now. His
production is down, his neck is still ailing, and rookie backup Ahmad Brooks looks
awfully big (6-4, 260, that's Urlacher-sized) and awfully good (10 solo tackles
in Week 6). Simmons may hold the position, but can the Bengals afford to
keep Brooks on the bench when their rush defense is so weak? DB to add: Marlon McCree, San Diego. McCree was brought on
board to provide playmaking skills at the back of the defense, and 5 games into
the season, he's settling in and starting to do just that. After 3 pathetic
games, McCree has hit "The Mark" twice in a row thanks to an INT and a sack.
McCree probably is going to experience inconsistency because there are few
tackles to be had behind the ferocious front 7. But in Big Play leagues in
particular, he could be a nice addition. DB to drop: Tory James, Cincinnati. Earlier this week, in our
Week 7 Waiver Advice, we proclaimed that James
would be out 2-3 weeks with a knee sprain. It must've gotten a lot better,
because James isn't even on the injury report. Curious! But James is missing
tackles, is a step slow, and most importantly to IDP owners, has only hit "The
Mark" 20% of the time this season. Rookie Johnathan Joseph awaits playing time. Hold onto: Chris Gamble, DB, Carolina. Richard Marshall has
been the star as nickel back lately, so maybe teams will start throwing at
Gamble again. Gamble has been a very consistent performer over his first 2
seasons and started out 2006 well. But his totals have faded over the last 2
weeks in particular. Count on him turning it around soon. Leave out there: Boss Bailey, LB, Detroit. I'm not as bullish
on the Boss as Landon is (see below). I'll agree that he's coming around, but he
won the MLB job when SLB Alex Lewis went down and MLB Paris Lenon slid over to
SLB. Lewis is almost ready to come back - what happens then? Detroit is 1-5, so
changes sometimes get made. If Bailey sticks as the starter, I do see him
improving. Then I'll start worrying about his health; the clock's ticking on the
injury-prone Bailey. Starter TipsFor the season, the grading system has been great, but for a 2nd week in a
row, the Starter Advice wasn't so good at the top end, and consequently our Tips
weren't so good, either. Well, every week is a new one in the NFL, so let's
tread forward and get back on the winning track.
DL to start: Elvis Dumervil, Denver: Last week, rookie DE Mark
Anderson of Chicago made me look good with a sack and forced fumble. This week,
I'm going with another rookie. All the ingredients are there for a big day: (1)
Dumervil is playing all passing downs for the Broncos, and has for the last 2
games. (2) Dumervil had 2 sacks a week ago. (3) He's facing a Cleveland O-line
that is 7th worst in sacks allowed per game. (4) Browns QB Charlie Frye says he
will hold onto the ball longer and take more sacks in order to avoid
interceptions. In a word, yum! DL to sit: Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis: Here
we go again. Freeney is still ice cold, is still listed as questionable even
after the bye week, and he faces Chris Samuels, a very good LT. Looks like his
sackless streak will extend another week.
LB to start: All fantasy-worthy Pittsburgh
linebackers (James Farrior, Larry Foote, Clark Haggans): They've all got
a great matchup this week. Atlanta runs the ball a lot - good. And Michael Vick
gets taken to the turf relentlessly, as the Falcons are 4th worst in sacks per
game - very good. You saw New York's 7 sacks of Vick last week, right? The
Steelers will be blitzing a lot, so Haggans is the best pick of the bunch,
coming from Vick's blind side. Farrior and Foote will get their chances, too.
Will all 3 hit "The Mark"? Probably not, but I'll bet 2 of the 3 do.
LB to sit: Ed Hartwell, Atlanta. On paper, it
seems like this should be a good matchup, since Pittsburgh likes to run the
ball. But can Hartwell get outside when the speedy Willie Parker sweeps? Will
Hartwell
hold up for a whole game? Demorrio Williams will play in nickel packages, so
Hartwell is a 2-down 'backer at best. Sit Hartwell on the sidelines unless
the Week 7 byes have crunched your lineup.
DB to start: Ike Taylor, Pittsburgh and Champ Bailey,
Denver. For you Tackle Leaguers, turn to Taylor. He's hitting "The
Mark" a fantastic 80% of the time in Tackle leagues and has the opportunity
to track down Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick this week. Since he's not a good
play in other formats, try Champ Bailey instead. I'm impressed with what Bailey
has done, still racking up fantasy points as a shutdown CB. That's unheard of.
Whenever Bailey picks off a pass and gets interviewed afterward, he starts with, "I saw
something on film..." The guy is making the most of his opportunities by jumping
routes and getting there before the receiver can. And on those occasions when he
goes INT-less, Bailey contributes some tackles to the cause.
DB to sit: Michael Lewis, Philadelphia. I'm
on board with Landon (see below) on Lewis. There's no telling what will happen,
but every indication is that Lewis will play on obvious running downs only, then
yield to Sean Considine. This is a disturbing trend for an excellent individual
defensive player, but unfortunately, real life impedes on our fantasy world. In
seasonal leagues, you might look to deal Lewis while his value is still high,
but then again, this is a pretty famous story this week. In dynasty leagues, be
more patient, but remember that Lewis' contract is up after this season. Landon's Bonus Tips
In addition to individual defensive player opinion, Landon lists the offenses
that are best to line up against.
Julian Peterson, LB/DL, Seahawks Julian is going to be my blue plate special this week. Follow me on this one.
Julian has been a bit of a tease since 2003 when he posted 95 solos tackles, 2
picks and 7 sacks. He's come down to earth quite a bit since then, succumbing to
injuries in 2004 and a good portion of 2005. I always kept him on my radar
despite these detours. (It's hard forgetting such impressive numbers as those
from 2002 and 2003.) Well now not only is he healthy, but he's enjoying the
support of a strong group of defenders around him. The topper is that it
appears he's going to line up at both LB and DE for the rest of the season.
Seattle has been playing Bryce Fisher into the DT spot at points in the last two
games asking Peterson to slide forward and line up as a DE. This bodes well for
those of you playing him in impact leagues. He's a good play against Minnesota
this week even though Brad Johnson plays a short game and doesn't hold the ball
long. But with Seattle's DBs locking down on a relatively weak WR corps, that
pattern could change.
Kawika Mitchell, LB, Chiefs
Nice week last week. But where have you been up until then Mitchell? We felt
Kavika would only improve in KC this year as Derrick Johnson and crew jelled
into a tight LB group. It hasn't happened. Cecil has him on the Waiver Advice
board as a decent 1 week start, I'm less sure, but I'll agree that with LT on
the other side there'll be plenty of chances for someone on the KC D to make
plays. Play him this week but expect more inconsistency from him as KC and he
move through the season.
Jermaine Phillips, DB, TB
The sword of Damocles hangs over his head in Tampa. Gruden and company are
extremely disappointed with his tackling this season. They'd been rotating the
rookie Pearson in as an answer to Phillips's mixed performances and even
actively pursued trading him this past week. Phillips is staying and he will get
a reprieve from Pearson as Pearson was injured this week with an abdominal pull.
He's a good sell high candidate if you have him even though his last three weeks
haven't been all that great. He's a fair "hold" for now, but it appears that
Tampa will use any excuse to move him to the bench once Pearson and Kelly
return.
Ian Gold, LB, Broncos I dropped Ian from a single season league I'm in. The FA pool is deep enough
that I can do this without pause. Gold has been anything but gold the past two
games. I watched him pretty closely against Oakland figuring he'd rack up some
impressive stats against a poor team. He didn't. The LB group in Denver is very
quick and Gold should have been feasting on Walters from the weak side spot, and
he didn't. If you don't have other better options, then you'll have to hold and
hope he plays well soon. Otherwise, drop him.
Brandon Short, LB, Giants We've recommended him as a short term solution and still see him the same
way, but…he's been pretty effective in his recent starts. Even so, his age and
pedigree keep me from giving him an outright seal of approval. He's only topped
45 solos tackles once (65) and is presently one sack short of his best season
total ever. He is outplaying Emmons right now. The question is can he
continue to do this? I really don't know. Arrington's gaudy contract is Short's
biggest hurdle in New York. If they'd do the correct thing -bench Arrington-
they could put Emmons in his place and allow Short to continue playing at WLB.
That's not happening, yet. Short may well end up be a season long solution.
Brandon plays Bledsoe in Dallas this week. Bledsoe is an easy target. If Dallas
can control the game with the run, Short won't do much fantasy wise as Dallas
runs between the tackles. But, if Bledsoe has to go long all day, then Brandon
will make short work of him and even seal a spot for himself in that Giants
defensive unit.
James Hall, DL, Lions I wrote last week that whatever defensive unit lines up against Losman and
the Bills offensive line was guaranteed 3 sacks, well I was a little off.
James Hall collected 3.5 sacks all to himself as did the lion's share of the
damage against the Bills. This week Hall gets to line up against Pennington and
his sacker friendly offensive line. Looks like Pennington will be thrown to the
Lions; start Hall with relish.
Boss Bailey, LB, Lions He makes a good, not great start this week against the Jets. The Jets don't
have much of a running game which will cut down on Bailey's opportunities for
tackles, but he's filled up his plate with 15 solo tackles in two games, he
demonstrated nice speed on the field against the Bills, and with the Detroit
defensive interior plugging up the inside gaps, runners are trying to swing
around their lines only to be met by Bailey or Sims. He looks healthy enough to
grab and hold the rest of the way. If you're looking for a potential mid-season
sleeper, Bailey could be your man, Boss.
Ryan Denney, DL, Bills I'll go with the flow. Cecil says drop him and I believe it's a good call.
Denney has not only not done much since week two but the Bills decided to add
Tony Hargrove to the DE mix. It's getting crowded in Buffalo. I will add one
little wrench though. Hargrove's addition might put Denney right back where he
was at the season's start -- a solid situational DE who could still post a sack
here and there as the season goes forward. If you have a deep bench or thin FA
pool, then hold and see what effect Hargrove has.
Richard Marshall, DB, Panthers I'm keeping the start signal on this youngin until he goes belly up. He's had
three weeks in a row where he's had some major fantasy contribution. As I noted
a few weeks ago, the Panthers defense is strong enough that teams are looking
for weakness. They keep picking on Marshall as a result and, so far, he keeps
delivering for his owners. A surprisingly less effective Carson Palmer rolls the
dice against Marshall this week. Play the odds and the player and start
Marshall.
Robert Geathers, DL, Bengals This guy is not getting his due. He's a sneaky pick-up if he's not gone
already. He has 5 sacks in only four games and is benefiting very nicely from
the attention everyone is paying to Justin Smith. If you have him, start him
this week and let's see if get a takedown of Delhomme. Jake has been sacked 12
times this season but the line in Carolina has improved allowing only 1 sack in
each of the last three games. It's no surprise really as Steve Smith was playing
in all of those games. He is the single most important player to his team. But I
digress. Geathers won't gather a lot of tackles but he's finding a way to make
an impact with sacks this season. Start him.
Michael Lewis, DB, Eagles He's losing favor in Philly. Sean Considine will be splitting time with the
highly rated DB this week, same as last week. Here's the news from
PhillyBurbs.com:
Practice was closed Wednesday, but Considine began working
with the first defense in place of Lewis, and all signs point to him
replacing Lewis when the Eagles face the Buccaneers Sunday in Tampa.
Coach Andy Reid was vague about how defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson plans to use Lewis and Considine. He said both will play, but it
appears Considine will be on the field in all but clear running downs
This is probably meant to scare Lewis into playing like we expect he should.
It could also be a sign of the times. The article also points out that the
Eagles are ranked 27th against the pass. Lewis is seen as a liability on
passing plays. He'll be in for the running plays. This is awful news for Lewis
owners. You should be thinking, trade, trade, trade! Maybe the news hasn't
spread far and his name still means something to someone else. Am I being
premature in this decision? Possibly as this is a contract year for Lewis and he
was a Pro Bowler only a couple of seasons ago. Still, it remains that Coach Reid
is willing to give him pine time because he is seen as a weak point on the
passing end of things. Not good, not good at all. Obviously, don't start him
this week. What you do with him beyond this week I leave to you. A reminder
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