Waiver Advice - Week 10
Cecil Taylor
One of the most frequently asked questions at IDPBlitz is whether our Waiver
Advice is based on one-week success, short-term success or rest-of-the-season
success. That's a really good question, because it's mixed. Usually when we
recommend dropping somebody, it's not one-week. It is "the foreseeable future,"
which means "until they get their act together." Sometimes, it may mean rest of
the season. As for additions, we identify when it's a one-week play. Otherwise,
it's usually "the foreseeable future" as well. Our expectation is that they will
continue to contribute to your team over time, but of course, at some point, the
added player could go south, too.
Even trickier is to identify the scenarios in which you should add or drop
someone. There are so many varieties of leagues, it's hard to give a
one-size-fits-all answer. Again, we try to call out some of the unique
circumstances: various scoring methods, dynasty vs. seasonal, and the biggest
factor in many cases, the size of the roster and starting lineup and number of
teams in the league. Our advice will be very different for a 6-team dynasty
league with large rosters, as opposed to a 10-team league with narrow rosters
and lineups. The rule of thumb is, the smaller the league and roster and lineup,
the more studs you need. The larger the league and the rosters, the more risks
you can take.
This topic might be deserving of its own section on the web site. We're
always thinking about how best to present the information. In an ideal world, it
would be customized to your situation, but we have to be more general, of
course. So it's ultimately up to you to interpret our advice and apply it to
your situation.
Don't waffle
These are players to make a move on. Don't wait to add or drop these guys.
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To Add |
Comments |
|
Clint Ingram, LB, Jax |
I gotta hand it to Landon Reed: he called it in his Bonus Tips in the Week 9
Tips of the Week. Ingram has performed well in his 2 weeks as a starter.
This seems like a team that's looking for someone to step up and make the
tackle, with so many key players hurt. Ingram's doing just that. |
|
Jason Webster, DB, Atl |
To be honest, this guy flew under our radar for too long. Our expectation
was that he would be supplanted by rookie Jimmy Williams by now. Atlanta's
coaches aren't totally pleased with Webster, but he seems to do enough to
keep his job. He's hit "The Mark"
50% in Tackle and Balanced leagues and would be at the same level in Big
Play, except he missed by 1 point or less twice. Very consistent, Webster
has only had 1 week in which he scored fewer than 5 points in all formats. |
|
Will Smith, DL, NO |
Maybe it's jumping the gun, but I'm going to declare that it's time to add
Will Smith back to your roster. His 2 sacks indicate an upswing in a season
in which he had a 3-week swoon. I'd feel better if he was more active
against the run, like last year. But it's safe to add him with Pittsburgh
and Cincinnati coming up, two teams that don't protect the QB very well. |
|
Darren Sharper, DB, Minn |
We were about to dump him, as he was on our Hold list last week. Then
Sharper did like last year and started hitting his stride. Ah, well, we knew
it might just take him awhile to adjust to Minnesota's brand of Cover-2.
Sharper has hit "The Mark" in 3 of his last 4 in Big Play leagues, twice in
the other 2 formats. |
|
Marcus Washington, LB, Wash |
As we analyzed last week's games, we decided to promote Washington to a
grade of A, and he followed through by hitting "The Mark" in all formats
against Dallas. That's twice in a row. He was a Top 20 LB pick in our
preseason forecasts, so it's not surprising that Washington is starting to
kick it up a notch. |
|
Robert Griffith, DB, Ariz |
When we last left Griffith before his bye, he was on his hottest streak in
years. Griffith's last 3 games have been impeccable, and he is finding more
picks than he ever has at FS. Grab him while he's hot, but realize that the
schedule turns DB-unfriendly soon, so keep an eye on matchups. |
|
Travis LaBoy, DL, Tenn |
We rated LaBoy as a mild sleeper before the season, but injuries hampered
him for weeks. He's healthy now and starting to turn up the pressure on QBs.
He'll be an end-of-the-bench choice for you, but if you're struggling at DL,
you could do worse. |
|
Asante Samuel, DB, NE |
Samuel has been on a pretty decent roll for the last 5 weeks or so. I've
never been crazy about any Patriot defender, but if you need DB help, he's
one to pick up. |
|
Al Wilson, LB, Den |
Never a fan of Wilson's, I nonetheless must recognize his fantasy
contributions lately. He'll still be up and down for you, but over his last
5 games, every other week has been a good one. Didn't I promise to eat my
cap if Wilson hit double digit tackles again? He got within one last week,
so I almost had a cap supper. |
|
Reynaldo Hill, DB, Mia |
He's a good addition in Tackle and Balanced leagues, where he has hit "The
Mark" in 3 of his last 4. |
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To Drop |
Comments |
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Simeon Rice, DL, TB |
You remember the Jordan Rules, right? Dates back to the 80's...sigh. OK,
here are the Simeon Rules for the rest of the year:
- If you're in a short league, drop him.
- If you're in a Tackle league, drop him. He's not a good choice in
Tackle leagues, generally.
- Be ready to move Rice back onto your roster if you see one of two
things: (1) He takes a week off to heal. Rice has been sluggish by his own
admission, fighting through an injured shoulder. (2) He goes off on
somebody for multiple sacks. Don't jump if he gets 1 sack - it needs to be
a multiple, then race to the waiver wire.
|
|
Michael Strahan, DL, NYG |
A mostly dismal season just got worse with the news that Strahan's injured
foot will sideline him for 2-4 weeks. Keep him on the shelf in deep roster
leagues, if you have room, and perhaps in dynasty leagues. But otherwise,
it's time to part ways. |
|
O.J. Atogwe, DB, StL |
Sorry, buddy, we gave you every chance. Looks like you were an early season
flash in the pan. |
|
Ahmad Brooks, LB, Cin |
I'm divesting myself of Brooks very soon unless I hear a good reason for his
flubbing up the last 2 weeks. After double-digit tackles in his 1st start,
he somehow managed only 3 solos combined against Atlanta and Baltimore. Hey,
there were lots of run tackle opportunities against those two squads. What
happened? |
|
Bryant Young, DL, SF |
Another weary warrior whose day is done. |
|
Brian Williams, DB, Jax |
Big disappointment after a brief burst in Week 4 and 5. He zeroed out in
Week 9. |
|
Terrence McGee, DB, Buf |
A productive DB in his 1st 3 seasons, McGee just hasn't had it all year
long. |
|
Ty Warren, DL, NE |
Another brief happy period, but now it's back to normal New England lack of
IDP production. |
|
Tedy Bruschi, LB, NE |
It's just great that he's even playing football, unless you still own him.
Time to divest. Bruschi hasn't hit "The Mark" since Week 2. |
|
Ken Lucas, DB, Car |
If you added him during his all-too-brief flurry a month ago, he needs to be
gone and forgotten. |
Don't waverIt's too soon to change your mind on
this group.
|
Hold onto |
Comments |
|
Bart Scott, LB, Balt |
Hold so you can trade him. That's my strategy in every league where I own
him. His last 4 weeks have been as bad as his first 4 weeks were good. But
he's still rated a Top 10 LB in your league, I'll bet. Find an opponent who
hasn't noticed his downturn and offer him a "sweet" deal. |
|
Madieu Williams, DB, Cin |
Madieu almost made the Hold list last week, but we thought he'd turn it
around. Sure did, to the tune of 11 tackes. |
|
Angelo Crowell, LB, Buf |
2nd week in a row on the Hold list. His shoulders are pinned to the mat, and
the ref is counting - 1, 2... |
|
Roy Williams, DB, Dal |
Williams has been fairly average for awhile now, with brief positive
flareups. Check to see if there are more productive alternatives, except in
dynasty leagues, where you should hold on. |
|
Adam Archuleta, DB, Wash |
I own Michael Lewis and Adam Archuleta in a dynasty league. The 1st month
was pretty blissful until the real world shook things up. Lewis got benched,
and now Archuleta is in danger of losing even more time to newly acquired
Troy Vincent. Keep an eye on this situation. You know I will! |
|
Leave out there |
Comments |
|
Seattle defensive linemen |
I wouldn't get too excited about Seahawks who had career nights against a
lame Oakland offense. Then again, the 'Hawks do face sack-friendly St. Louis
next week. In their last meeting, Julian Peterson and Bryce Fisher had 2
sacks, Ken Hamlin had 1, and Rocky Bernard had a half-sack. |
|
Corey Williams, DL, GB |
There's a reason why you hadn't heard of him or Craig Terrill
of Seattle. And a reason why you'll forget them by December. |
|
Junior Seau, LB, NE |
His stats have been all over the map this season. A good week is not gonna
sway me. |
|
Ed Reed, DB, Balt |
Yeah, he scored on an INT return, but it wasn't even his interception.
Samari Rolle picked it off and slipped it to Reed, who ran it in. So he
really hasn't turned his game around. As Napoleon Dynamite would say,
"Lucky!" |
|
Kenoy Kennedy, DB, Det |
Nice - he had a pick in his healthy return to the lineup. But Kennedy is
going to make his fantasy living off of tackles, and he still needs to work
on that aspect. |
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