Special Report: Second Half Makeover
Cecil Taylor
So your IDP lineup is bringing down your team. Maybe you drafted before you
found IDPBlitz, and you've been playing catchup ever since. Maybe you're like me
- a little lazy on the trigger at times. One of my teams has only a slightly
above-average IDP lineup, because I've been writing about individual defensive
players and being slow on the draw to go get them. (Hmmm....I need to see who in
that league is reading IDPBlitz! I know staff writers Landon Reed and Mike
Harrison are in that league; maybe they're the ones beating me to the punch!)
Whatever the reason, you are what you are, as Bill Parcells loves to say. But
now we're going to change all that. Here are 6 categories of players who can
revitalize your 2nd half roster. And just to be clear: I'm going to climb on a
limb and saying these are rest-of-the-season projections.
The Last Good Bye
These are players that may have been shuffled off to the waiver wire for the
last bye in Week 9, and may accidentally be available in your league.
Eric Barton, LB, NYJ - Oh, hope that someone made that mistake!
Barton has hit "The Mark" at a 50% pace in Tackle leagues, 38% in the other two
formats, and has only had 1 really bad week. He's outpointed Jonathan Vilma in
Tackle and Big Play formats, and is only 1 point behind in Balanced scoring. Trent Cole, DL or LB (depends on your league), Phil - Yes, I actually
saw someone drop this Top 5 DL in one of my leagues during the bye. I'm hoping to claim him off
waivers myself. Bryan Thomas, LB or DL (depends on your league), NYJ - This
up-and-coming LB was a recommended Add a couple of weeks back. He's hit "The
Mark" in all formats in 3 of the last 4 weeks. Mike Minter, DB, Car - Assuming no one was stupid enough to drop
fellow Panthers DB Chris Gamble (check anyway), Minter could be an
end-of-the-bench fill-in, depending on matchup. He had a decent October, and
only Week 3 and 4 were really bad for him. Erik Coleman, DB, J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! - A bitterly
disappointing start to the season began to turn around in Weeks 7 and 8 before
his Week 9 bye. He's probably available, and if he's back to normal production,
you've got a Top 20 DB the rest of the way. Resurgent Players
These are players who went high in your draft but have bombed throughout much
of the year...until recently. They're on the upswing and ready to fulfill their
fantasy promise.
Will Smith, DL, NO - As I noted in the Week 10 Waiver Advice,
this may be too-happy, premature advice. Smith was a Top 10 DL in practically
every preseason analysis, and a Top 5 here at IDPBlitz. Though Smith has been
much maligned (and so have I for rating him so highly), he's actually not done
that badly. In seasonal points among DLs, Smith is 19th in Tackle, 18th in Big
Play and 16th in Balanced. Not up to expectations, but hardly a disaster. And he's hit
"The Mark" 50% in Big Play and 38% in Balanced, although a mere 25% in Tackle,
which was actually expected to be his strongest category. He's most likely
available and very much worth the risk. Mario Williams, DL, Hou - A recommended add from the
Week 9 Waiver Advice, Williams is beginning to fulfill the promise of a 1st
round draft pick, as explained in more detail in a recent News and Notes.
Take him with confidence. He has scored at least 5 points in every format for
the last 5 weeks - pretty steady for a DL. Darren Sharper, DB, Minn - The Week 10 Waiver Advice
tells you more about Sharper's resurgence. Just remember that he has a great
pedigree, with at least 4 INTs in every season since 1999. His recent upswing
may not be as strong as his 2005 2nd half, when he picked off 8 passes, but it
does remind you of his capabilities. Keith Brooking, LB, Atl - Brooking never knows where he's going to
line up, MLB or WLB, with MLB Ed Hartwell in and out of the lineup (remember, we predicted that
here first back in July). Last week, Brooking hit
"The Mark" in Big Play for the 1st time all season, but even as average as his
numbers have been, he has hit "The Mark" 50% in Tackle and Balanced leagues.
Maybe Brooking is getting back to his normal, consistent self. Not sure if he's
available, though, so don't hold your breath. Charles Tillman, DB, Chi - Tillman has not made the plays we've come
to expect out of a 2005 IDPBlitz Honor Roll member. But his last 2-3 weeks have
shown improvement, especially in Tackle and Balanced leagues, and here's one
positive about him: Tillman has scored at least 4 points every week in all
formats. Severe Underperformers
In most categories, we're naming 5 players, but there are 3 that leap to mind
here that have serious 2nd half potential -- IF, BIG IF, they get their acts
together.
Dwight Freeney, DL, Ind - Did you see him bounce off Tom Brady on
Sunday night? It's been so long since he sacked a QB, he obviously forgot how to
do it. But like an ol' huntin' dog who gets a taste of game and remembers what
he's about, maybe that will trigger Freeney. Well, maybe. If he gets back on
track, then you look like a genius. Hey, if your IDP lineup stinks, why not take
a shot and live through the bad weeks - or park him on your bench til he
revives. Simeon Rice, DL, TB - OK, I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on this.
No single player has received more electronic ink from IDPBlitz this year than
Rice. If he's healthy and on his game, you'll own one of the most prolific
sackers in NFL history. Take your chances accordingly. Gibril Wilson, DB, NYG - I keep rubbing my eyes, thinking Wilson is
going to be better than this. After 2 outstanding fantasy seasons to start his
NFL career, Wilson has been abysmal in 2006. If you have the stomach for it,
roll the dice, stick him in your lineup, and cross your fingers that he
improves. Overlooked Gems
Let's balance out the mere 3 players in the prior category with 7 of these. 3
+ 7 = 10, 5 + 5 = 10. It's a wash.
Channing Crowder, LB, Mia - Man, I love it when I look good. After
predicting a Crowder breakout in my
Week 9 Waiver Advice, the 2nd year player went out and did it with his best
game of the season -- and against Chicago, too. Insiders have been saying he's a
future Pro Bowl LB. Grab him and hope he's getting to that level sooner rather
than later. (Rats, just checked, Landon has already scarfed him up in our
league). Corey Chavous, DB, StL - Chavous' best fit is in Tackle leagues, where
he's hit "The Mark" a whopping 63% of the time, compared to only 25% in Big Play
and Balanced. Scott Shanle, LB, NO - One of the fantasy surprises of 2006, this
former Cowboys ILB backup is thriving and surprising in New Orleans at OLB. What
impresses me about Shanle is his consistency. He's hit "The Mark" a respectable
50% in Tackle and Balanced leagues, 38% in Big Play. But he's also scored at
least 5 points in every format in every week, except 4 points in Week 1 Tackle
leagues. A solid if unspectacular contributor to your lineup. Chris McAlister, DB, Balt - I'm starting to think that Ed Reed and
Dawan Landry are not the way to go in the Ravens secondary. Instead, try
McAlister, who has hit "The Mark" a sparkling 63% in Tackle leagues and 50% in
the other two. One warning: When he's bad, he's very, very bad. Luis Castillo, DL, SD - I've mentioned this before, but I got roasted
this summer by a fellow fantasy writer from another web site (that doesn't
specialize in IDP) for listing Castillo as a Top 30 player in the preseason.
Thought it was too high. Turns out I didn't put him high enough. Castillo is
17th or better in seasonal DL points in all formats. Darrent Williams, DB, Den - I'll sum up my comments from the Week 9
Waiver Advice: Talented, but opposite Champ Bailey, he's gonna get thrown at.
Can make plays, but if he doesn't, will make tackles. Ty Law, DB, KC - I call him a poor man's Champ Bailey. Law has settled
in with the Chiefs and has posted at least 6 points in all formats in 5 of the
last 6 weeks. Getting healthy
These 5 players (back to 5 now) suffered through early season injuries, but
are healthy and ready to contribute to your IDP lineup.
Joey Porter, LB, Pitt - He may be gone already, but check it out.
Porter historically is inconsistent, so beware. He might post 1 point, he might
post 15. Feast or famine. Travis LaBoy, DL, Tenn - I really thought LaBoy had sleeper potential
this season after recording 6.5 sacks a year ago. LaBoy was a bit hobbled and
questionable most weeks before the Week 7 bye, but fought through them to
score...very little. But the bye week has revived him. After 2 decent weeks,
he's someone to consider if you're short on DLs. Karlos Dansby, LB, Ariz - You don't know what you're going to get with
Dansby. But if he's healthy and back to normal, Dansby is a potential breakout
player. He was productive 2 of the 3 weeks before the Week 9 bye, but got
injured Week 8. Research his status before committing. We haven't heard much
lately ourselves. Bob Sanders, DB, Ind - Oh, I know some of you have been waiting all
season to turn him loose. I'm not convinced that he's a great fantasy player,
but Sanders did contribute 8 solo tackles and an INT of Tom Brady in his Week 9
return. Most likely available, but he has so many fans, he may be allocated
already. Shaun Phillips, LB, SD - What a blazing start he got off to! In 2
leagues, I have been making every maneuver to keep him on my bench throughout
his calf injury. Looks like he's about to ready to go, and if so, expect a Top
10 performance the remainder of the season. 2nd half sleepers
Wanting to take a chance? Keep a close eye on these 5 players having breakout
2nd halves.
Clint Ingram, LB, Jax - A waiver wire darling these days, this rookie
is getting his chance and making the most of it. I expected him to win the WLB
job to start the season, but I guess he wasn't ready. He's ready now. Elvis Dumervil, DL, Den - I'm sure in most leagues, people still
haven't pulled the trigger on Dumervil. His best fit is Big Play leagues, maybe
Balanced as a 2nd choice, because he's primarily a pass rusher who won't
generate many tackles but may produce fumbles. I predicted double-digit sacks
for him in the preseason, and I'm sticking to that. In limited action, Dumervil
now has 6. Akin Ayodele, LB, Dal - You gotta watch players on new teams and new
positions. Sometimes it takes them awhile to adjust, then they take off in the
2nd half of the season. Keep an eye on Ayodele. His fantasy performance has
taken a step up in the last 3 weeks, and he may be ready to be more of a
playmaker for a Cowboys team that needs one. Danieal Manning, DB, Chi - Manning started his career with a splash by
picking off Brett Favre in his 1st game. Since then, he hasn't donated much
fantasy-wise until Week 9, when he hit "The Mark" in Tackle and Balanced and
just missed in Big Play. There's just something about this safety from Division
II Abilene Christian that says he's going to get this NFL level figured out
pretty quickly. And when he does, he could make a big impact at the back of the
Bears' mighty defense. Barrett Ruud, LB, TB - When are the Buccaneers going to acknowledge
that this season is over? Should be soon, right? And when they do, Ruud will
become the starting MLB. Actually, his opportunity may come even sooner, as MLB
incumbent Shelton Quarles sustained a high ankle sprain on Sunday. Those sprains
take awhile to heal. Ruud nearly hit "The Mark" in relief of Quarles last week,
and in his last start in Week 3, Ruud posted 8 solo tackles. On a Tampa Bay
defense that can't stop the run, Ruud will have plenty of tackle chances
at RBs charging through the line.
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