Upon Further Review: IDP Auction Strategies
Landon Reed / Mike Harrison
Going Once…Going Twice…Sold, to the Man in the Leisure
Suit and Bunny Slippers! OK, so you only believe you're suave and debonair, but
there's little doubt that participating in an auction is a rush. When the
opening bids are called for everyone is a millionaire and that feeling is only
topped by the thundering slam of the gavel as a slick speaking auctioneer points
at you and bellows, "Sold, to the man in the leisure suit and bunny slippers."
A football auction is not only a rush but also the ultimate
measure of an owner's ability to balance adrenaline with placidity, moxie with
gentlemanliness, and brass you-know-whats with lucid modesty. Only the most
prepared come out ahead -- luck has nothing to do with it as everyone has equal
footing when it comes to signing a Julius Peppers or Champ Bailey.
So, lace 'em up and strap on that chin guard, because you're
going to that meat grinder of a school The University of Reed run by headmasters
Landon Reed and Michael Harrison. First we'll lay out the basics to a football
auction and then we'll privately tutor each of you with our insider's secrets to
surviving and dominating what some have called the true fight club. Finally,
we'll include a short table demonstrating how to allocate your 100 million based
on each of our approaches.
If you're already auction hardened you may want to skip down
to Landon and Michael's sage advice. Who knows what little gem you'll uncover?
Why hold an auction style draft?
The main question we get about auctions is why should they be
conducted at all? Isn't it much easier to draft players and own players on a
turn-by-turn basis where the guy with the first pick gets dibs on all the
players available? Well yes, it is easier, but it's also less balanced or fair
if you will to the league as a whole. An auction severely reduces the luck
factor of a draft. It's what we call an open market. Every player is available
to every owner. Everyone needs to decide for himself just how badly he wants an
LT of Peyton Manning.
The basics to an auction style draft.
Auctions are fairly straightforward as a concept. An
item, in this case a player, is put before a group of potential buyers. Each
person present has an opportunity to bid on the player for his services. So for
example, if Julius Peppers is up for auction, then everyone present may bid to
acquire him for his team. The owner with the best -- usually but not
always the highest- bid wins.
On-the-block means a team has put a player on the market
for everyone else to bid on. Sometimes the player you put on the block is one
you really hope to land. Sometimes, that player is not of interest to you, but
one you know will draw heavy bidding from others. This is a nice strategy to use
at times as it depletes funds from other teams prematurely. The longer you can
stay financially richer than your competing owners the better the latter rounds
of the auction will go for you.
Spending Caps are always part of an auction. If there
were no limits to spending, then everyone would bid indefinitely to get the
players they wanted. Your success is tied to how well you spend this finite
amount. Presently, Michael and I play in a league with an auction that allows us
to spend 100 million. It seems like a lot until you realize that a player like
Ladainian Tomlinson might go for 14 million and you still have 24 to 40 more
roster spots to fill. Now you need to tighten your spending with only 86 million
left.
Bidding is managed differently under many league formats.
If you think of how you might approach an auction at a tag sale however, you'll
have a decent idea of how bidding tends to work. Let's say someone is selling a
lamp you just love. You may decide on the spot that you're willing to spend all
20 dollars in your pocket to get it, but do you jump up and scream, "20 dollars
for the lamp dude!"? No, you might open at the minimum, say 1 dollar, and see if
anyone else is nuts about the lamp. You'll keep upping your bid until it's the
highest or you've hit your 20-dollar limit. Bidding for football players is no
different.
Winning bids vary according to league auction rules. The
simplest (and most common) are year-to-year leagues where the highest bid wins.
But as noted already, the highest bid is not necessarily the winning bid.
Perhaps your league is a legacy/keeper league that includes contract years as a
parameter in the auction process. Well then, if two owners have the top bid for
Julius Peppers but one of them is offering a longer-term contract, then Peppers
will join the team offering the best deal, i.e. the longer contract for the same
pay. In some leagues it's even possible to win with a lower annual bid for more
years -- as long as your offer has the highest total (not average per year)
contract dollars.
Player salaries are sometimes preset, particularly in
legacy or keeper leagues. The top performers from the previous season will have
top dollar values as their salaries. In these cases, those preset values are the
minimum you can bid for the players. This is done to prevent owners from nabbing
a star player for nothing because other teams overspend early.
Contract years are a nifty twist to football auctions.
You may love Rodney Harrison, but you fear he'll retire next season or see a
dramatic decline in stats. You know that a few other owners feel highly about
Harrison too. Do you bid a lot for a one-year deal? Do you bid a smaller amount
but extend a longer-term contract? Or, do you bid both high in salary and long
with contract years to ensure getting him, possibly ruining your salary cap for
years?
Auction drafting advice in general.
Retain a good sense of player rankings, but don't
be a slave to them. When you're part of a straight-pick draft where
salaries, auctions, and contract years are not a concern you come prepared with
list of ranked players. This list, or understanding of one, should not be
abandoned simply because you're involved in an auction. If Peyton Manning is
your top QB then he remains a top priority to sign -- but remember it will
cost you to do this. You cannot be a slave to your pre-rankings because you
will end up broke very quickly in an auction.
Have a plan for the auction. Perhaps you want to put only
players you don't want on the market to entice other owners to part with scarce
dollars. Perhaps you have an order in which you wish to get positions filled.
Maybe you know that one of your competing owners just has to have his hometown
team's players so you can break his budget for him. Whatever your plan is --
stick to it. But remember - be prepared to deviate if that's what is required
during the auction.
When participating in an auction draft -- or any draft - you
must fully understand where each position falls in terms of relative value
and scarcity to one another. For example, most leagues tend to weigh QBs
more than most other positions. Locking up a solid QB early therefore is often a
sound idea and this will mean having to bid more than you would for, say, a
kicker. Scarcity is also a concern when bidding in an auction. Reliable and
productive running backs are somewhat scarce. You may decide then to overbid to
land those players.
Know your league's policy on acquiring free agents and
cutting players. Some leagues will let you cut a player without penalty.
(This makes it easier to bid heavily on a player.) In most, however, you will
incur a penalty of 50% of your cut player's salary. So, if you signed Brian
Urlacher for 3 years at 9 million and you cut him in his first season with you,
your available cap for the next two years will be reduced by 4.5 million each
season. Always consider these longer-term ramifications. Some leagues also only
allow you to acquire players if you've held back some funds at the end of an
auction. So, if in week 4 you really need a cornerback because of injuries, you
will need to have funds to bring a free agent aboard. Otherwise, it means
cutting a player and taking a cap hit.
Watch how much money you put into play. Some auctions
will only allow you to put so much money on the market. As noted before, Michael
and I play in a keeper league with an auction. We are only allowed to put 50%
more than our starting monies into play during the auction. So, using the
example from before, 100 million to start means we can have offers totaling 150
million on the market. BUT, we need to come in with no more than 100 million by
auction's end. This requires a lot of attention and sometimes retraction of
offers to players, which in our league comes with its own penalty.
Landon's advice
Those of you who read my thrifty column likely already know
how I feel about spending for anything. I look a lot before I buy. I always
consider the pros and cons of each option and only then do I make a buy. Nine
out of ten times I lean toward the thrifty purchase. Here's my thinking:
Gem #1: Don't ever buy the top guy at a spot --ever.
Some (Michael) will argue that landing someone of LT's stature while
expensive is really a smart move. LT puts up the points of two players but takes
only one spot right? This is true and it's also true that it's a huge gamble. If
LT sinks so do you. What I prefer doing is ranking positions first. (RB before
QB, QB before WR, and so on) so I identify what I feel are the thinner talent
pools. Then, I rank players into three tiers at each position. So, if I'm
considering LBers, I may have Urlacher, Fletcher-Baker, Bulluck, and Ryans on my
top tier, Briggs, D. Brooks, Morrison and others, on my second tier, and a good
number on of solid and promising LBers on my third tier. I then plan to sign a
designated number from each tier irrespective of whom it may be. So, I might
plan to sign 1 top-tier LB, 2 second-tier guys, and 3 third-tier LBers.
Following my lead advice here though, I tend to forgo the top tier guys and work
to land myself 4 tier-two guys with 1-2 supporting tier-three guys.
I also stick to a firm price in my head. Last season I
refused to exceed 8 million for any single player. I landed London
Fletcher-Baker, Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, and Willis McGahee for a total
cost of 28.5 million. As you may notice, I feel RB depth can never be enough. I
had protection at a thin position and Westbrook did some excellent damage for
me. Some will argue I may have overspent for some of these guys, true but it
didn't ruin my finances. This season, I still hold all four players as most were
given three-year contracts. I have a good core of mostly tier-two guys and I
didn't break the bank.
Benefits: This has several benefits to it. I tend
to save money this way because I don't put all my money into one or two players.
Knowing your cap for any one player makes it harder to spend wildly or
emotionally. I can almost always start a very capable lineup, even with bye
weeks. If I need to drop a guy it's not too costly. And, when making trades, I
have depth to do this. I also have reasonable contracts.
Gem #2: Withhold as much money as
you can throughout each player signing. I work hard to keep my
money at home with my family and me. This takes a lot of resisting temptation
and reminders of longer-term goals. An auction is no different for me. I'll let
slews of players I might really want to own and believe are talents slip past me
in order to hold onto my money. The later it gets in the draft, the more
persuasive you and your cash become. The guys that will blow away the market to
get Randy Moss, Champ Bailey, Aaron Kampman, and Demeco Ryans will find they
can't acquire good depth in the middle and final rounds as they have barely
enough to fill out their roster at the league minimum. Those owners may have
spent 40% or even 50% of their allotted funds already. Good luck getting talent
now. (More concerning is how difficult it will be to trade these guys and their
ungainly contracts.) Those of us who held back for the initial, heady signings
can put our money in play rather easily as there's less competition. I may not
have gotten Keith Bulluck (cost 10 million) but I can likely pick up Will
Witherspoon, Keith Brooking, and Andra Davis combined for the same amount later
in the auction. Who's got the better depth then?
Benefits: The longer you
hold onto money in an auction the exponentially richer you become. Your buying
power goes way up and you are far more likely to get players either at their
true value or on the cheap.
Gem #3: You should bid on the top
talent. Huh? OK, I know this seems like I'm contradicting myself
but give me time to explain. You should bid if only to drive the price up. This
approach, known as price enforcement, is one of my most prized strategies. I
always seek to drive prices up with top guys because I know that most owners are
feeling a sense of anxiety when an auction begins. They see a player's salary
rising fast and they think "Oh my God, I'm going to lose him!" so they overbid,
wildly. They forget they have other players to get. This is a tricky approach as
you could be left with the player. The key is to roughly figure out player
values beforehand. I figure most top players will go for 75-100% of their actual
value. If you bid 50-75% over, you're not likely to get stuck with the pricey
contract and you will create the frenzy hoped for.
Benefits: Again, the idea
for me behind having a successful draft is letting people burn up their funds
quickly and exorbitantly on the relatively few stellar players out there. Your
willingness to bid on players ups the frenzy factor while also skewing many
owners' sense of spending. Then you get to cherry pick.
Gem #4: Buy the best talent over
filling positions and bye weeks. I know some very savvy owners
who continue to draft players with bye weeks and roster needs in mind. This
always baffles me. Let's consider bye weeks first. Bye weeks do not begin
immediately in the NFL. There's time for you to make roster changes through free
agency or trading to get by. Also, it's amazing to me how infrequently playing
down a position results in a change to a game's outcome. Sometimes you slaughter
another team and it hardly mattered if your lineup was complete. Sometimes, you
get slaughtered and that extra player wouldn't have helped anyway. Grabbing the
top talent over more depth at DB or TE is far smarter. The better talent you
have the stronger your trading position will be following the auction. Plenty of
owners will make a deal to your benefit to get a guy that is expendable to you.
Benefits: What would you
rather have? A LBer group that consists of Antonio Pierce, Scott Fujita, and
Eric Barton because there are no conflicts with bye weeks? Or, would you prefer
having Antonio Pierce, Ray Lewis, and Adalius Thomas, two of whom will be out
week 9 of the season on byes? Me? I'll risk going 8-0 and then facing that week
9 decision. I'm kooky that way though.
Gem #5: Be the coach…of New
England. You need to remind yourself continually during an
auction that you're not really missing out on anyone in the earlier rounds of an
auction. Yes, I'll concede that awesome players will be lost, but then you need
to concede that there's plenty left once you skim off the upper layer of players
to make a winning team from. New England has carved out quite a winning record
for itself with a collective group of tier-two players fantasy-wise on defense.
Yes, they have Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi but they were never at their
peak as NE players. NE understands how to take lesser pieces and meld them into
an unbeatable combination. An auction is no different. You need to look over the
second and third-tier guys that produce almost as well as the top-tier guys.
They will come to you cheaper and allow you to become deeper.
Benefits: You'll work harder than your peers to
prepare for a draft/auction. You need to know who the poor man's Ronde Barbers
and Brian Urlachers are to win. And believe me, they're out there every single
season: the unheralded but talented, the less-than-choice but productive. I
scooped up Demeco Ryans in all of my leagues and looked pretty clever because of
it. Think like you're working for the Patriots. Oh and read IDPBlitz every
chance you get.
Gem #6: Know which positions are
most consistent from season to season. Those of you who have been
IDPBlitz members from the beginning know I do not care much for DBs. I've
written volumes on how fickle they can be from season to season. (Yes, there are
exceptions, but too few to mention. Michael is surely shouting: "Hey Landon, all
the more reason to overpay for Ronde then right?") Look, you can't go too wrong
with Adrian Wilson or Ronde Barber but that costs money, a little too much for
me. I'd rather scoop up a slew of DBs late and keep the ones that produce well
enough to help me win. I do it every season and I win a lot. So, keep in mind
that when considering IDPs it's my opinion that LBers come first, DLers second
(barely), and DBs last in terms of reliable stats from one season to the next.
When considering offensive positions, my priorities are RB, QB, WR, TE, and K.
Overall positions I have the following: RB, QB, WR/LB, DL, TE, DB/K.
Benefits: Building up a
solid and relatively cheap group of LBers will help later when trades need to be
made. You can count also on those points and big plays coming in consistently.
Selecting DBs later, but in volume, pretty much means you'll find a gem or two
in the group to perform as if you bought top talent. I got Chris Hope this way
last season and Adrian Wilson a few seasons ago the same way. DLers had lost
their consistency some the past two seasons, but it looks like this season could
correct that. Check out our rankings to see how we've ranked them, then read the
player analyses to see how deep we feel this position is becoming.
Gem #7: Be aware of how deep the
FA pool will be. If your league is likely to have a very deep FA
pool because the league isn't too large or rosters too deep, then plan on
reserving money if your league allows it. Plenty of owners get stuck with big
player contracts and cannot dump them easily. They have to work with the small
number of players they bought. You, if you're cash rich, can treat the FA pool
as your practice squad. See a rookie blossoming suddenly? Nab him. See a need at
DL, then go fishing.
Benefits: You essentially expand your roster
beyond those of your competitors and have no issues about filling holes and
collecting important cogs for your championship run.
Michael's advice
Unlike Landon, I'm a believer in the "you get what you pay
for" approach. Sometimes cheapest is the right way to go because that's where
the value is -- but too often when you give cheap dollars you get cheap talent.
My strategy is risky but will reward you with championships more often than a
playing it safe strategy will. A disclaimer note: most of these gems do not
apply if you are playing in a money league. In that kind of league you are
trying to be one of the top teams so you'll get a return on your investment. You
need to minimize risk in that kind of league because winning's important but
only secondary to your primary goal of finishing "in the money".
Gem #1: Make sure you get either a top QB or RB -- one
of the top 2 or 3 at the position. Which one you go after (you
probably can't afford to grab both) depends on your league's scoring rules. As
Landon said above, a player like LT will get you the points of 2 players. But in
some leagues a Peyton Manning can be even more valuable because of the scoring
rules. Landon stated that sinking your funds into an LT is a gamble because if
he goes down you're up the proverbial creek without the proverbial paddle. Ahh --
but he's no more likely to be injured than any other player. And he certainly is
likely to be top top scoring RB. Failing to acquire top talent is a bigger
gamble overall because it leaves you grasping for points on most weeks.
Benefits: 1st -- the satisfaction of owning
the best. No more trying to guess the matchups and figure out whether this is
the week that Cadillac Williams actually plays like one or if he'll be at his
usual Kia level again and you'd be better off going with Julius Jones. You'll
have peace of mind when you put your stud in your starting lineup every week.
2nd -- that's a position you are going to win. His points will be a nice head
start on taking that week's game.
Gem #2: Use a "barbell" approach
in building your roster. This goes hand in glove (hand on ball?)
with #1 above. Talent wins in the NFL. And it wins in fantasy too. Having depth
is fine, but your reserves don't garner points unless they play so don't waste
any more money than you have to on them. Spend your dollars on your starters. I
recommend an 80/20 approach -- 80% of your funds to your starters, leaving 20%
for your reserves.
Benefits: The more top
players you have the better your chances of winning. Sure -- you may end up with
a thin roster and be vulnerable to injuries. But the idea is to win -- and your
best chance is with the best talent. If you get hit with injuries and go down in
flames so what? No one remembers who finished second let alone the poor shlub
who came in last.
Gem #3: If you are sure of your player and sure of his
value then throw out a freezeout bid. Trying to milk your
available funds to get a player as cheaply as possible is a sound strategy in
many cases. However, if you want a stud then go get 'em! Don't let your money
management instincts prevent you from getting the player you need. That's a
penny-wise, pound-foolish approach.
Benefits: Although it
seems counterintuitive at first consideration this approach can save you money.
A strong bid discourages other owners from competing while raising bids in small
incremental amounts often will result in your slowly moving your bid until it's
higher than the shutout bid would have been. Let's face it, in a standard salary
cap league of $100 per team, you're not going to get LT for $5 anyway. So why
not bid $30 up front and try to shut everyone else out? He's worth $40 this year
easy.
Gem #4: Know your
opposition. Perhaps one of your fellow-owners is a Raider fan
(poor guy) and just has to have all of those Oakland studs (?) on his team.
Throw those names out there and watch him use up his budget. Or maybe a
different owner just has to grab mucho depth at -- say - DB. Keep those good DBs
coming so he'll overspend at that position and leave better players elsewhere
for you.
Benefits: Every time an
owner overspends you're better off. Husband your dollars by getting them to bid
foolishly and you'll be sitting pretty in the latter stages of the auction.
Every auction has a stretch where players go for bargains. The key is to prepare
for that moment and strike when it occurs.
Gem #5: Assign every player that you expect to be
signed as an active or reserve player (in leagues that have reserves) to a tier.
Many magazines and web sites publish dollar values - for offensive
players. Unfortunately for us IDP fanatics few, if any, do this for our faves so
we have to do it ourselves. This sounds like a lot of work but it really isn't.
Include enough players at each position to account for your league's roster
rules, and then place them into 5 tiers, A through E. Let's use LB as an example
in a league with 16 teams. There are approximately 100 starting LB slots in the
NFL. Let's say your league uses 3 starting LBs and 3 reserves. With 16 teams
that's a total of 96 LB slots. An A player would be in the top 10% in the entire
league. Type B players are good solid starters, about another 25%. Type C
players are average starters who won't win games for you but won't lose 'em
either. This level is the next 30%. Type D is the next 25% or so, and E players
(who you try to avoid of course) the last 10%. In addition identify younger
players that might be B's (or at least C's) if they get enough playing time and
assign them to a reserve tier. The percentages are not hard and fast rules, just
guides. Yours may vary.
Benefits: Doing this
clarifies your thinking on which players are essentially equivalent in value. By
doing this exercise you will easily be able to shrug off losing out on any
individual player in the draft and can avoid wasting dollars by "jumping" and
overbidding on someone. You'll already have his equal picked out just waiting to
be put on the market. It's just like a pretty girl -- if you miss out on one
there's another coming right around the corner. Also, by sorting the available
players into tiers you'll more easily identify when a position is ripe for
plucking because an overabundance of -- say - tier B DLs - are available. That's
the time to throw those type players on the market and snap 'em up while they're
bargains.
Gem #6: Spend those dollars.
In leagues that allow it Landon would have you save auction money for the
regular season so you can more easily acquire available free agents. It sounds
good in theory but don't do it. Every dollar saved during the auction is a
dollar you didn't spend on available talent. You can raise all the money you
need during the season by dumping your mistakes and working with the dollars you
free up. Just be careful with the length of your contracts. Try to drop only
those players that you signed for one year.
Benefits: More dollars
spent at auction means more talent on your team. I sound like a broken record
here but more talent on your team equals more points equals more wins for you.
Gem #7: Keep a draft sheet for
every team. Ideally this will be a spreadsheet (if you have EXCEL
its ideal) that will automatically deduct the auction dollars from the owner who
signed the player. As the auction moves into later rounds you'll know exactly
which positions your rivals have filled, which they still need and how much
money they have left to fill them.
Benefits: Having this
level of detail enables you to identify the teams that might bid against you for
a player and how much they may bid. Knowing this will let you obtain players
more cheaply.
Gem #8: Avoid the obvious
mistakes. Don't bid more than the minimum on a kicker. Don't
forget to "handcuff" your key RB (make sure you get Michael Turner to back up
LT). I agree with Landon -- bye weeks are relatively unimportant but know them
anyway. I'll tell a story on myself here - you don't want to end up with 6 LB's
all on bye in week 7 (like I had 2 years ago in one league). Having an open
position won't kill you but playing no LBs in a week is tough to overcome. Don't
focus on any individual player to the detriment of your money management. Get a
premium IDPBlitz membership and visit the site at least 3 or 4 times each week.
Benefits: Each of these
will help you prepare for the auction, husband scarce dollars, maximize your
auction returns and help you win your league.
Spending Plans
Money Allocation: Most auction style leagues work
with a 100 million spending cap in the first season. Bonus funds are generally
made available following an auction, though each leagues varies a great deal.
Some league make you front real dollars for every free agent you acquire; and
then all the collected funds from post-draft transactions are given to league
finishers. We both play in a league where and additional 10 million is
given to each owner to spend following the draft --a total of 110 million to
spend for a whole season. That's the guidelines we'll use here.
Click here for Landon's spending plan.
Click here for Michael's IDP Auction values.
Landon's Wrap-up: Michael has won his share of leagues to be sure using his
time-tested gems. I think between the two of us you have a well configured
backbone of rules to put to use immediately and a few you may have to chose
between based on your style of play or thinking.
Best of luck at your next football auction and stay tuned to
IDPBlitz's updated player ranking lists for next month. I have here in my hand a
final piece of advice you simply cannot win without. Do I hear 100 dollars?
Going once…going twice…
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